Saturday, July 17, 2010

Signs of the Collapse of the Iranian Government

It is entirely possible that the current regime in Iran will be directly attacked in some manner in the near future. Here are the kind of threats the government faces:

1. Israel may attack Iranian nuclear facilities.
Netanyahu added, “we should not allow irrational regimes like Iran to have nuclear weapons.”
Even though Netanyahu refused to outline a specific strategy or a deadline, he reiterated his nation’s willingness to utilize force to halt Tehran from developing its nuclear capabilities that Iran insists are for peaceful purposes.
The prime minister said, “there’s only been one time that Iran actually stopped the (nuclear) program, and that was when it feared U.S. military action.”
A United Arab Emirates ambassador publicly supported the idea of an Israeli strike to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities (but later backtracked).
At one point during the session, Mr. Otaiba suggested the U.A.E. would support such an Israeli strike.
"A military attack on Iran, by whomever, would be a disaster," he said. "But Iran with a nuclear weapon would be a bigger disaster."
Later, he acknowledged political consequences across the Mideast of a military attack. But he suggested they would be worth it, if a strike deprived Iran of a nuclear-weapons capability.
"There will be consequences, and there will be a backlash and there will be problems of people protesting and rioting and very unhappy that there is an outside force attacking a Muslim country," he said. "That is going to happen no matter what."
"But if you are asking me, 'Am I willing to live with that versus living with a nuclear Iran,' my answer is still the same. We cannot live with a nuclear Iran. I am willing to absorb what takes place at the expense of the security of the U.A.E."
2. Increased violent incidents against government members and important buildings.
A refinery in the southern city of Abadan was torched; a top regime apparatchik (head of the automobile industry) was shot in Damascus; explosions and fires consumed parts of Tehran's notorious Evin prison, where many political prisoners are kept; two suicide bombers killed scores of Revolutionary Guards at a mosque in the province of Baluchistan. And these are the more routine of the miseries and crises daily endured in Iran.
A Sunni separatist group, Jundallah, has taken credit for the mosque bombing.
Sistan-Baluchistan's Sunni majority has long had tense relations with Iran's central government.  Jundallah rebels have carried out numerous bloody mosque bombings in recent years.
Iranian officials have repeatedly accused the United States and Israel of supporting Jundallah.  U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, however, denounced Thursday's bombings, calling them "terrorist attacks."  Jundallah also reportedly enjoys close ties with the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban.
3. The Green movement has grown and picked up prominent supporters.
The regime is riven by internal conflict, and some of the past heroes of the Islamic Republic are openly siding with the Greens. This was seen in a dramatic television interview last week with the former defense minister, Admiral Ali Shamkhani, who enraged his interviewer by supporting many Green demands for greater freedom.
4. The influential Bazaari merchant class has gone on strike over a recent 70% tax hike.
Now too the strike that began in Tehran a week ago, has spilled over into the grand bazars throughout Iran. In Esfahan and Tabriz as well, bazar merchants who have come to a collective guild agreement have notified the tax division of the Ministry of Commerce. And though the Iranian regime rescinded the 70% tax hike, agreeing to a 15% increase, all businesses remain closed. Though this is said to ultimately be agreeable to the merchants, the fact that now the Esfahan and Tabriz bazar have joined the strike, is a sign that the regime has reaped what it has sewn.
Received reports indicate that the intense security atmosphere within the bazars also continues, as the regimes guards roam each section of the Tehran bazar.
Despite efforts to contain the media coverage and spread of strikes across the country, one newspaper has published photos. The Bazaari class had previously striked against the Shah in support of the 1979 Revolution.


With all these factors, it's hard to predict what will happen in Iran, except that something will. And soon.

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